Everyone’s got top-5’s and -10’s. Lists of who’s hot and, unfortunately, not. Some call it ‘trending’, which probably means ‘who is creating a lot of internet traffic at the moment?’
So who’s trending in the NBA? Almost a quarter of the way through the regular season, you can see trends taking shape. Inconsistencies and anomalies you might have seen from Team X start to look a bit more consistent. Sure, it’s still early days: the Celtics won as much as they lost after Christmas last season, but they made it to game 7 of the Finals; the Spurs consistently wait until March to start peaking; even the Nets lost their first 18 games, and they weren’t the worst team of all time. But 15 games are enough to reveal a team’s identity, or some of their DNA at the very least.
Miami Heat
Started as the biggest story of the summer, lost their first game on the road to the Celtics, proceeded to beat up lottery-bound teams before losing close ones at home and on the road. They are now a game over .500. Read that again if you like. A team touted as winning 70 games was 10-8. But we should have seen this coming. While they have James, Wade and Bosh, they have no size (or length, as they call it), no rebounding, no point guard, no bench and their two best players, Wade and James, have quite similar styles. This means smaller teams with less talent can out-rebound and out-hustle them, any team with a decent point guard – and there are many – can cut holes in them, and once the coach looks to his bench they’re in trouble. And since LeBron and Wade have two of the highest usage rates in the league, one is often standing around waiting for the other guy to do something. So they aren’t quite gelling yet, and when you add the fact that EVERY team in the league wants to beat them since they assumed the villain role in free agency, their task of doing so is a bit harder. So the Heat are trending down with no identity to speak of.
Still working it out
New Orleans Hornets
After the Saints won the Superbowl and the Hornets missed the playoffs, the last thing New Orleans wanted to see was James, Wade and Bosh teaming up in Miami. It planted the seed in Chris Paul’s head that maybe the grass was greener with some superstar buddies elsewhere. So it was much to everyone’s surprise that after the trade bells were sounding all summer for Paul, the Hornets started so well, at 10-0 they were the league’s last undefeated team. He is the centrifugal force – if the season finished now he would be a unanimous MVP choice – behind their resurrection. Even with the resurgence of guys like Okafor, Belinelli and West, as well as a commitment to defence from some unusual sources (undersized power forwards and white euro swingmen), Paul’s fingerprints are all over the Hornets early season form. Even though they’ve cooled slightly, with the Hornets trending right up, the chances of Paul leaving head in the opposite direction.
Everything cool?
LA Lakers
The two-time defending champion Lake-Show are rolling thus far. We know their identity and nothing much has changed, yet off-season recruits Barnes and Blake are insurance that will extend the shelf-life of Bryant and Derek. They are yet to welcome back starting centre Bynum, while they are getting career years out of Odom and Gasol. Meanwhile in his quest for greatness, it appears Kobe finally ‘gets it’. As in, he gets that making your team mates better and achieving a common goal as a group is far better than seeing your name up in lights when it’s all said and done. So Kobe and the Lakers are cruising right now, and one presumes they’ll become more complete once Bynum returns. Thus they are trending right up.
Still got it
Phoenix Suns
The hallmarks of the Suns teams over the past decade have been a great pick and roll game, a high tempo offence, a predilection for long range shooting and a lack of the fundamentals of defence. The common factor has been Steve Nash, the best shooter in the history of the NBA. Yet this year, while he remains the lynchpin, Phoenix looks a bit different. Or a lot different. There’s a glaring hole where Amare Stoudemire used to be, so the pick and roll game has taken a few steps backwards. Their presence in the painted area is vastly diminished. At least we know the Suns’ identity; we always have and they are unlikely to alter it. They certainly haven’t this year, but the new pieces (Warrick, Turkoglu, Childress) aren’t half as effective as the old one. The roster doesn’t quite fit together, with a lack of rebounding and no inside presence being the obvious shortcomings. Yet that hasn’t held them back in the past. What they may lack the most is an All Star foil for Nash whose twilight years need some proper support. They like to prove the doubters wrong, but this year they may have trouble. Trending down for 2011.
Need help?
Boston Celtics
After losing Perkins in game 6 of the finals last season (until March 2011), the C’s bolstered their front line with Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal. While both have battled injuries, they have more than made up for the loss of Perkins and Rasheed Wallace from last year’s squad. Injuries are probably the only thing keeping this team out of the finals, but they have had to overcome them before. It’s part of this team’s identity: a veteran defensive unit that grinds opponents down and has an incredibly balanced and complementary roster. The main difference this season is that Rondo is trending way, way up. Last year he was given the keys to the Celtic’s car; this year he’s taken the ownership papers too. That and the Big 3 (Garnett, Pierce, Allen) are all healthy for a change. So the C’s are trending right up.
Making the leap
Houston Rockets
Having spent the past few seasons with their best players (Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady) out of the line-up, the Rockets are used to competing hard with limited resources. The nature of the NBA means this is not an affliction limited to the Texans, but when Yao entered the season under a cloud of injury the assumption was that Houston would valiantly battle on with quality pieces in Brooks, Martin, Scola and Battier. So to see the Rockets go 0-4 to start the season and struggle since against middling teams suggests 2011 could be a year of change. It’s almost like they have a sprinter’s mindset with the body of a weightlifter: they have the pieces to be an inside/outside team with great post presence and spot up shooters, but they have gotten used to a high tempo game since Yao missed the whole of last season. Now with him back, they can’t seem to find what it is they should be doing. They should recover at some point, but in the stacked Western Conference it’ll be insufficient for a playoff berth. So a season on the slide beckons; a downward trend.
Old photo, but quality
Chicago Bulls
Last year this team finished 42-42 and got rolled by Lebron in the first round. Don’t be surprised if they pay that favour back in the post-season. They added some nice pieces in Korver and Matthews, but the trump card was Carlos Boozer. No surprises then that with Boozer having not played thus far due to injury, Rose is playing out of his mind and Noah is having stellar start to the year. Under new coach Tom Thibodeau (former Boston assistant) they have a defensive presence and their role players are complimenting the core nicely. Once Boozer comes back and shoulders a bunch of the burden currently on the shoulders of Rose and Noah, they should be a handful. And if the rankings allow it, the Heat may know as well come playoff time. Until then, Chicago is trending in an upward direction.
Ready for take off
Oklahoma City Thunder
The young guns of the league are having a tough start to the year. That happens when expectations are higher than ever and opponents themselves know what to expect. As with the team’s identity, their current struggles start and finish with Kevin Durant, the reining scoring champ and a pre-season MVP candidate; as he goes they go. Right now they look like they’ve regressed which is odd, but considering that Durant isn’t even the MVP of his own team might go some way to revealing the struggles. He’s not playing with the same efficiency as last season, even after a hugely successful stint with Team USA at the World Champs. The Thunder remain a young team with huge potential and to its credit the organisation isn’t rushing into things. But after a breakout year in 2010, other teams may have their number. One hopes they don’t take things slowly and their window closes like the Blazers may have just done. So while they have a great core of young, ripening talent, their current downward trend is slightly concerning.
Not so fast
The prospect of losing to England has always been enough to spur the All Blacks into a winning performance, or near enough. Unbeaten in their last 8 encounters, the two losses they suffered prior to that streak were by a combined 5 points, and in the time since then, the closest the Red Rose came was in 2005 when New Zealand completed their first grand slam in 21 years. Yet while the grand slam is now arriving with the same metronomic expectation as Canterbury finishing the season in the provincial rugby final, the All Blacks enter this autumn’s test in unfamiliar territory.
It’s been 27 months since last succumbing to Australia and over a year since failing to finish on the right side of the ledger in a test match. Understandably the criticism from the shaky isles was on the harsher side of reasonable; a test loss brings out the best in armchair critics. But it was interesting to think about what may have happened had the shoe been on the other foot: your average Aussie pundit mightn’t have been all that concerned and perhaps would have been heartened that a blow-out was on the cards while their playmaker was still on the field
Nevertheless, the start of the grand slam kicks off this weekend and the coaching panel have resisted the notion of fielding the tried and tested. Rather than rotating, they are using their squad and have given starts to 4 players who wouldn’t otherwise get one. Williams, Gear, Whitelock and Mathewson should add vitality and speed around the park, with a mandate to run the English into the ground, in much the same manner that was dealt to the Springboks this season. While the selections compromise experience, there is still a wealth of expertise on the field and it is worth noting what an even more experienced team did against the Wallabies last weekend.
The bench selections will raise the ire of many. Yet coaches tend to reward incumbents and form players, both of which apply to Donald, and while his shortcomings are obvious he’s unlikely to have as acute an influence on the game two weeks running. Toeava, meanwhile, is the best utility back in the squad and has amassed a superb portfolio of work in the past 3 years at provincial and Super Rugby level. His failures in Hong Kong were glaring in isolation, but he should be better for the experience.
What the bench selections highlight is how quickly things can change in rugby. 4 weeks ago, the strength and depth of New Zealand’s outside back resources was comprehensive. Yet an injury or two can change the make up of the squad and all of a sudden you have new faces and old ones you may not have wanted to see so soon.
England will look to expose the All Blacks in the forwards, as is their want, but won’t have the same dynamism at the ruck that Australia have with a player like Pocock. In Hong Kong he was always a threat and constantly sucked the life out of any New Zealand pressure. While the English will attack with their physicality on defence, their knowledge of the nuances of ruck play isn’t in the same class as their opponents. On attack, New Zealand will be able to control the ruck without sending to many bodies to ground, yet perhaps their strategy will be to defend for much of the time, making England create before unleashing lightning counterattacks with their enormous yet nimble outsides.
England’s forwards are likely to be their best method of attack; perhaps it’s a sign of how far they’ve come since they last beat New Zealand that Mike Tindall is still in the centres. And while much is being made of their attacking back division, the ‘threatening English back three’ is a familiar story that never seems to materialise. The recall of Sheridan will provide a stern test for the All Blacks’ set piece, but one wonders if he, as well as Moody are returning a bit soon. England most likely will seek a victory using any means necessary; a tactic they will hope disrupts the flow of New Zealand and further exposes cracks in their confidence that were revealed last weekend.
Of great interest will be how New Zealand bounces back after defeat. The last time Henry’s team lost their first of two away from home, they lost the second (South Africa 2009) as well. And while they are still unbeaten in autumn tests in the northern hemisphere (excluding World Cups and Barbarians), there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that shows the end of a long winning streak can produce two or more losses in a row (Southland, ITM Cup, 2010; Dallas Mavericks, NBA, 2010; Houston Rockets, NBA, 2008; Indianapolis Colts, NFL, 2010). None of these examples are directly relevant to this weekend’s affairs, but don’t say you weren’t warned.
This weekend the All Blacks name their squad of 30 players to tour Asia, the UK and Ireland. In the lead up to the announcement, the inevitable questions arise about who should be taken, who should be left out and why there are no longer any bolters. But while the End Of Year Tour (or EOYT, as it has become known), which this year incorporates Bledisloe IV in Hong Kong with a Grand Slam tour, has been a place for testing new combinations and trying a few new things during the 7 year tenure of this coaching trio, things will be a bit more serious this year.
There are the obvious calls to leave Richie McCaw and Dan Carter at home in cotton wool so that they are well rested for the World Cup next year. But while the thinking is sound – it’s no secret that the depth behind these two is paper thin – the reality is that this is the first base camp on the ascent to World Cup 2010, to borrow an unfortunate analogy from the John Mitchell era. So while this season was a great fillip for rugby in NZ, this tour is the first stage of building for this time next year; losing momentum now would be a foolish move. At a time like this it’s best to keep the foot on the pedal and the collective throat of the opponents. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the first game of the tour against the Wallabies. They’re a team on the rise and came so close in Sydney; there’s no sense in giving them the taste of victory at such a crucial juncture in the four year cycle which international rugby has inexorably become.
So with that in mind, it’s worth noting the murmurs coming out of the All Blacks camp recently regarding a few players. There’s chat that contrary to the established beliefs, only two hookers and halfbacks will be touring, instead of the usual three. They take three on a tour like this so that if one of the two hookers/halfbacks in the squad of 22 goes down injured in the week leading up to a match, there is another one in the squad of 30 to cover, while another player may be sent for from NZ. The rationale behind the thinking this year is that there are so many contenders in the backs that any players that represent unusual utility value become much more valuable.
So…while taking two of each wouldn’t represent a huge selection dilemma since there are only two quality players in each position in NZ (Weepu, Cowan, Mealamu, Hore), if the not unlikely instance of injury befalls the squad, it’s hard to be too confident in the abilities of John Afoa throwing in a line-out or Aaron Cruden feeding a defensive scrum in the final five minutes of a close match. Injuries like that rarely take place, and if you were paying attention, the All Blacks only lose fly-halves in crucial test matches in the northern hemisphere. But it’s hard not to shake the thought that if someone does go down on a Friday night, the squad isn’t sufficiently covered.
Meanwhile there are those returning from injury who will want to force their way into the 30. Guys like Hore and Sivivatu should make the flight north, if for no other reason than Hore is the only legitimate backup to Mealamu, while Sivivatu is one of the top five contracted All Blacks and is its best counter-attacking weapon. The coaches will be confident of their ability to slip back into the groove with limited match play. Isaia Toeava is a favourite of the coaches but his job of making the squad will be a bit tougher than the other two. One of the best utility backs in the country and, quote unquote, the best passer in NZ (thank you Pat Lam), there’s a traffic jam on his road to the squad, with a plethora of midfield options available, even without the likes of Kahui and McAllister who will remain home injured.
Ali Williams won’t make the tour and is still a few months off top flight rugby but he’s another coach’s favourite and a player in the mould of Frank Bunce who always plays his best in a black jersey. There is talk that he’ll be farmed off to a British club to get a few games before the Super 15 begins, which isn’t a bad idea since he’s been out of rugby for the best part of 18 months. And of course there’s Dan Carter who still must recover from ankle surgery. Sure he’s a quick healer, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be anywhere near the 22 for Hong Kong.
So there are a few players who have been integral in the past but are now on the outside looking in. And their job is that much tougher since the All Blacks are unbeaten this year and most players that have stepped in have contributed strongly. But that’s what makes this week of the year so much fun for armchair enthusiasts, if not for the 40-odd players vying for 30 spots.
The front row will pick itself. Mealamu and Hore will travel even though both are recovering from injury, while Woodcock, the brothers Frank and Afoa will be the props. On that note, there seems to be a fair amount of depth in the front row in New Zealand, with the likes of Tialata and Crockett not getting a look in. Brad Thorn, Tom Donnelly, Anthony Boric and Sam Whitelock are unlikely to be challenged as the four best locks in the country and with a 16/14 split between backs and forwards, that leaves 6 loose forwards to travel. Obviously McCaw, Kaino and Read will be there, but who backs them up is interesting. It might be time to give Dan Braid the chance as the next best 7 in the country, with the thinking that if there’s nobody talented enough to be in McCaw’s shadow, there might as well be someone experienced enough. A back-up number 8 specialist is a good idea in the event that Read goes down in the next 12 months, while a blindside who covers lock would make sense as the last of the bunch.
In the backs is where the logjam exists. Clearly Weepu, Cowan and Carter pick themselves, while Slade might get the nod because he covers wing and fullback at a pinch. Jane, Dagg, Muliaina, Sivivatu, Nonu and Smith are safe bets (could this be more understated?), which leaves three positions available with about a dozen players forcing the issue. Rokocoko would be desperately unlucky to miss out, while Ranger could also feel aggrieved. But then you have names like Freuan, Crotty, Stanley, Delaney, Toeava, Cruden, Donald and the elephant in the room, Sonny Bill Williams. You’d have to expect the coaches will go with the players they know and those who are truly worthy of becoming a project. So in that case, yes to Toeava and SBW; no to Freuan and Stanley.
Props Halfbacks
Afoa (covers hooker) Weepu
Woodcock Cowan
O. Franks Fly Halves
B. Franks Carter
Hookers Cruden
Mealamu Slade
Hore Midfielders
Locks Nonu
Thorn Smith
Donnelly SBW
Whitelock Toeava
Boric Wing
Loose Forwards Sivivatu
McCaw Jane (covers fullback)
Kaino Rokocoko
Read Fullback
Braid Dagg
Vito Muliaina
Messam
If you didn’t wake up in the small hours to watch the Springboks play New Zealand overnight, you will likely rue the decision. This match traced two parts of rugby more commonly associated with the early days of professionalism: day time kick off in the Republic and a come-from-behind All Blacks victory.
I could spout on about grit and determination and the will of New Zealand to come through in the crunch; likewise I could wax lyrically about a much improved South Africa who fought to the death, never said die and were unlucky to lose. But I won’t because there are only three things you need to know about rugby after this game. Number one, the All Blacks’ fitness is proving to be their strongest weapon; two, if and only if, de Villiers gets the chop the All Blacks have reason to fear the Springboks; three, McCaw for God.
With the Springboks defence proving a much more resistant force than their last three matches, the All Blacks struggled for most of the match to find the gaps that they’ve become accustomed to. For the most part the Boks were impregnable, forcing a few uncharacteristic errors for the Black team. But you could tell as time wore on and the half gaps opened that New Zealand would breach at some point. Perhaps if Carter had brought his kicking boots it may not have needed two tries in the final two minutes, but it was testament to the All Blacks’ conditioning and their willingness to keep attacking that they could snatch victory at such a late stage. They are fitter, stronger and faster than their opposition every Saturday, but most importantly they have the brains to apply those qualities at the right times – namely the 80th minute, on this occasion.
Possibly the most frustrating thing about this match for any South Africa supporter is that the Boks had all the right tools on the day. None of the players let the side down, with the exception of Pierre Spies, who is not a test quality Number 8. Their tactics were spot-on and the hunger they displayed in front of 90-odd thousand was enough to warrant a victory. But the cracks appeared after 60 minutes, and they were mistakes of execution and leadership. At the ruck, they were far more effective in clearing bodies and creating quick ball, but they still gave away silly penalties. Fly-half Morne Steyn had a forgettable day, aside from his place-kicking. He was erratic kicking from hand and made the mistake of kicking too often instead of using the quick ball his forwards had brought to the table. In the first half, the Boks shifted it wide and caught New Zealand short of numbers. Later in the match they failed to execute this effectively, instead giving away possession via the boot to a dangerous back 3. As the game entered the final ten minutes, the Boks didn’t know how to close it out properly – a symptom borne of losing the winning rhythm – and gifted possession and points to the opposition.
While South Africa will claim that this group is ‘together’ and led by some strong individuals, it seems there isn’t a strong axis of leadership and if this is the case you must always look at the coach. Sure, the new faces helped restore some faith in the Springboks of 2010, but if Peter de Villiers remains in a job, the Boks of 2011 will suffer the same fate. This is a man who routinely shifts blame for his and his team’s shortcomings. Some may see this as backing his players, but it’s also operating with your head in the sand. If he goes, South Africa is an entirely different animal.
Finally, and most pleasingly, Richard McCaw. It becomes a bit boring when he is always up for Man of the Match. He’s like Michael Jordan in the 90’s and the Crusaders of the noughties: he wins so often that it’s fashionable to look for others who may have stood out as much. And players do, but nobody has ever done it as consistently as McCaw. Again he was central to the All Blacks’ cause in Soweto, not least because of his hair-raising run down the right touch to score in the corner and tie up the game with two minutes to go. It’s all been said about him before, so there’s not a lot to add. Dan Carter is probably the most important player for the All Blacks’ World Cup chances next year, but McCaw is the player whose greatness most epitomises the Graham Henry All Blacks.
It doesn’t seem long since the last football season ended. That’s because only 34 days ago Spain and Holland kicked the crap out of each other to conclude what was, on reflection, an uninspiring and disappointing World Cup. No great teams, no great players – actually plenty of great players; none of whom lived up to their reputations – no great games, few great goals. One of the great talking points, perhaps a little condescendingly and with more than a hint of irony, was the unbeaten run of New Zealand. In fact, there was such a dearth of quality that the world was duped into thinking Spain played so beautifully. Credit to them, but it was possession football and could hardly be compared to the incomparable Barcelona of the past two years.
Defending champs Chelsea
So with a mixture of scepticism and hope, the English Premier League begins again this weekend. Right now, the scepticism has more to do with the state of the national team, but it has a knock-on effect that has rendered the start of the season a little too soon for many people’s liking. Yet there is much hope, particularly after last season’s wide open race for the Top Four and a title race that went to the wire. This year the hope is greater still that there are more challengers to a throne that has only been reserved for 3 teams over the past 15 years.
It’s fair to assume defending champions Chelsea and runner-up Manchester United will again figure strongly at the top of the league tables over the course of the 40 weeks. Neither team has strengthened their teams significantly from last year. Chelsea lost Joe Cole, Deco, Ricardo Carvalho, Michael Ballack and Juliano Belletti and brought in Yossi Benayoun, Ramires and a couple of other young’uns. However they have Michael Essien and Jose Bosingwa back from long term injuries and if they can keep healthy – always a big if – they should be more comfortable than at times last season.
Sir Alex - still got the moves
Nor have United strengthened much, aside from adding Chris Smalling and Javier ‘Chicharito’ (‘little pea’) Hernandez. But again, if they can retain a modicum of health compared to last year they will be much stronger. However expecting another career year from Wayne Rooney would be asking a lot; entering the season short on fitness portents a slow start, but by the same token after taking a beating from England fans over the past two months, he’ll feel right at home again up amongst his Mancunian brethren.
Arsenal stumbled over the final month last season when it appeared at one stage they were odds-on to take the title. But the familiar curse of injury struck and they folded meekly in the end. This year will be tougher to gauge. Captain and barometer Cesc Fabregas has his heart set in Barcelona, but his contract is with Arsenal. And with the London club unwilling to relinquish the talismanic midfielder, he’ll be in North London for the time being. It’s hard to predict great things when the best player wants to leave, however he’s still there, along with Arsene Wenger who, like him or not, always produces teams that play inspiring football with what seems like ever-dwindling resources. This season though, Arsenal has an unmatched crop of young talent that’s likely to figure strongly. Watch out for guys like Keiran Gibbs, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsay and Theo Walcott, who are surprisingly enough, all British.
Insert generic cliche about looking over their shoulder this season
Tottenham were the big movers of 2010, finally breaking the grip that the Big Four had on the Top Four. With Harry Redknapp at the helm and an impressive array of attacking players (Crouch, Pavlyuchenko, Modric, Keane, Defoe), Spurs effectively beat City to the fourth spot by knocking them over on the penultimate day of the season. So now Champions League football awaits at long last (although they still need to qualify for the group stages), but having not added much to their squad, they look the most vulnerable of last year’s final four. Resources will be stretched and while they have high ambitions, one only needs to look at Liverpool last year to see what that can do to a side. They will attack and they will impress, but staying in the Top Four and being competitive in Europe is a tall order for a club who lack the experience of juggling a title race with top calibre European competition. They open the season against Manchester City, which should be as compelling as it is important, considering at the end of last season they were separated by only three points.
Nice….whatever it is
Manchester City has bucked the trend of prudential spending this off-season, with 80 million pounds outlaid already, a figure that’s expected to hit 100 mil by the time the transfer window closes on August 31. An impressive squad with a quality manager in Roberto Mancini, Man City are chasing success and only thinking short-term, even though they have a clutch of quality young players. This means the pressure will be on the manager to provide results now – top four is the bare minimum expectation. With players like Adebayor, Tevez, Adam Johnson, Yaya Toure, David Silva, Vieira, Gareth Barry, Nigel de Jong and Roque Santa Cruz, the squad is drenched in quality. However there is a question mark over whether a team that has been thrown together rather than given time to develop will be able to succeed at such short notice.
Aston Villa are in trouble. Four days before the season kick-off, manager Martin O’Neill has resigned. He and the owner have differing opinions as to how the club should proceed. Having lost Gareth Barry last season and with James Milner set to follow him to City before the transfer window closes, O’Neill can be forgiven for his decision if you think that good players are a key to success. They still have some young class in Gaby Agbonlahor and Ashley Young but after something of a dream run to sixth last season (they were in the hunt for the top four until the final month) they will be hard pressed to improve. With the other teams around them looking stronger and more confident, a start to the season like this is the last thing the Birmingham club needs. They’ll need to strengthen the squad for any chance at the Top Four, and they should manage that if they get the 30 million for Milner that’s being thrown around. But they may also need a miracle.
They look a bit confused but they are all on the same team
If the only way for Villa is down then by all means, Liverpool’s season is sure to be an improvement on their disastrous campaign, and last, under Rafa Benitez last season. From second in 2009 to seventh in 2010, the Reds couldn’t have got it any more wrong, and the catalogue of problems was glaring. But there is renewed hope on the red half of Merseyside, with a new manager in Roy Hodgson – a well-respected and well-travelled manager who is known for inspiring his players. Key figures Steven Gerrard, Jamie Carragher and Fernando Torres have re-committed to the club, while Joe Cole has moved north to try and reignite his career. Christian Poulsen and Milan Jovanovic have brought strength to the midfield, and though Javier Mascherano will likely be granted his coveted move to Barca, there is much to like about the squad. There is a new feeling around Anfield – a breath of fresh air after the pall that had descended at the end of Benitez’ rein – and expectations will be far more conservative than last season. Yet Liverpool should move up the table at the very least. Hodgson’s style will be much better suited to a squad that will be dangerous if it comes together and is injury-free. But there is a caveat: if they’re not Top Four by season’s end, the exodus of talent will be much more real than the threat that was posed this off-season.
Outside of the seven that challenged last campaign, Everton is the only other team expected to offer any sort of change to the establishment. Their failure to capture Landon Donovan, however, will hamper their progress. Mid-table will feature plenty of old faces, including Newcastle, who are making a welcome return to the top flight. Relegation contenders are always a bit tougher to pick, especially with no guarantees like Portsmouth or Burnley anymore. However Blackpool look as good as any to get the dreaded chop.
Since everything revolves around the Top Four in the Premier League, here are a few top fours to look out for this season.
Top 4 Transfers
Joe Cole: on a free transfer, he’ll add class and creativity to a Liverpool that suffered without Gerrard and Torres for 21 games last year.
David Silva: perhaps not the same player he was a couple of seasons back with Valencia. But he’s 24 and is deadly up front or on the wing. Will he adapt to the pace of English football, or more pertinently, will he get a game with the attacking riches at City?
Marouane Chamakh: another free transfer, Chamakh will provide the Arsenal forward line some strength and depth after they struggled in the absence of van Persie last year.
Javier Hernandez: Manchester United have had some success in astutely buying young attackers. They’ll hope Hernandez is another of those (10 million squids), and having already scored with a bizarre finish in the Community Shield, he’s a genuine star in the making.
Chicharito - the ‘little pea’
Top 4 Young Bucks
Jack Wilshere: the Arsenal midfielder is bound to get a bit more time on the pitch this year, and at 18 should develop well in a passing system with a stacked midfield.
Dani Pacheco: the Barcelona academy graduate will get plenty more chances with a new manager at the helm at Liverpool; one who’s more supportive of the young and untried.
Keiran Gibbs: another Arsenal youngster who featured in the Three Lions team that beat Hungary at Wembley this week, the 20 year old is a class act at left back and an heir apparent to ex-Gunner Ashley Cole in the national side.
Adam Johnson: probably a bit old to be a young buck, but he’s a quality winger who should find his feet this season with Man City, even amongst the heavy competition on the flanks.
Wilshere - on the left
Top 4 With a Point to Prove
Roberto Mancini: the Man City manager’s first full season in charge will probably be his last if the Top Four remains out of reach.
Fernando Torres, Wayne Rooney, Frank Lampard: these three were ineffective at the World Cup without a single goal or assist amongst them. Reputations are on the line.
Mancini has a hell of an orchestra to conduct this season
Top 4 You May Have Forgotten Thanks To Injury
Jose Bosingwa: the smooth Chelsea right back is a class act. He’s got a velvety game that will impress.
Michael Essien: the lynchpin in the Chelsea midfield has been injured and shuffled around the past few seasons. If he’s back to fitness and form, he gives Chelsea a significant advantage every weekend.
Joe Cole: another injured Chelsea star from last year, he’ll be playing 90 minutes up north and because of that should remind us of the player he was three years ago.
Alberto Aquilani: bought as a 24 million pound replacement for Xabi Alonso, he brought with him unfairly high expectations and an ankle injury. He was still good enough to lead Liverpool in assists and while he’s no Alonso, he’s no mug either.
Bosingwa. Nice guy though.
Top 4
Chelsea: still the strongest squad and Drogba says he’s finally injury-free after 6 years struggling with hernia troubles. Yikes!
Manchester United: a couple of holes in midfield and still a few injuries to overcome. Still, Sir Alex will have them in the hunt right to the death.
Arsenal: best player/skipper who doesn’t want to be there (see: Liverpool 2010) doesn’t bode well. Still, a great organisation, a great manager and class in key positions.
Liverpool: if Mascherano doesn’t find a suitor, they are a world class forward short of a world class squad and they’re on the rise. They’ll surprise and impress with their style and resilience.
If there’s one thing I like to do on YouTube, it’s salivate over old sporting action. Nothing quite like watching MJ go to work in 1988 when he averaged 35 a game. Or perhaps reliving the greatest comeback of all time – that hot night in Istanbul – when Liverpool came back against overwhelming odds. I especially like watching All Blacks games squeezed into ten minutes; particularly northern hemisphere tours and anything with Zinzan or Bunce involved.
While perusing, I’ve managed to stumble across some clips summarising two year periods of the All Blacks’ recent history. The most alluring part, aside from the reliving some epic games, is the Italian commentary. It’s a really nice change from Nisbo and Marshall (really? Marshall is the best replacement for John Drake?). You don’t get the bias, the excitement is visceral and the pronunciations are pretty sublime – particularly Joe Rokocoko.
So enjoy the All Blacks in Italian.
Naviga, naviga, naviga, naviigaaaaaa!!!!
R-r-r-rokocoko!
Ali Williams…..Mar-r-radon-na!
After a weekend spent analysing all things sport and many things otherwise, there have been a few days to digest what has been argued. Among several other things, the conclusion was reached that England has the world’s best sports fans. This is apparently not up for debate, however it’s a point worth marinating on. Especially since tomorrow night against Hungary at Wembley the fans are expected to boo the team in response to their limp effort at the World Cup.
You can’t deny that sports fans from the UK and Ireland are fantastic travellers (think British Lions and Ashes tours); naturally they spend a lot of money supporting their teams abroad. So after investing a small fortune on travelling to South Africa for a month only for their team to disappoint so resoundingly, they have every right to feel aggrieved. Captain Steven Gerrard even said if he was a fan he would boo the players at Wembley tomorrow night.
But it’s been a couple of months since the World Cup ended for the world’s most hyped football team. Clearly the pain of an early exit is still fresh in everyone’s mind, although a pre-meditated boo seems a bit extravagant. Obviously old habits die hard and these fans have long memories, but paying money to boo a team because of how they lost the World Cup seems to defeat the point. The administration would perk up a bit more if it wasn’t a sell-out so maybe voting with their feet might awaken the FA to the improvements required.
But that’s not the way they do things around here. If they pay the price of admission they can support their team any way they like, including not supporting them, as it were. Yet, you have to wonder whether it has any real effect on the players. It’s pretty clear that the problem with English football is systemic and while the players must be criticised for their performance in South Africa, booing them might make the fans feel better but it will hardly make the players play better. And what effect will this have on their opponents? What happens if they score early? Will the crowd celebrate a Hungary goal? It would seem to be the next logical step.
Unfortunately they won’t. The boo-boys generally find their voice and eventually change their tune in the second half, which shows just how easily the English can turn on their side – a famous trait of a nation that loves to see how far the mighty can fall. And it’s only fair since Fabio Capello will ring the changes after halftime, replacing those from his World Cup squad with a bench full of new faces who missed the debacle.
So is a pre-meditated boo indicative of good supporters? Well, it cuts both ways. The reason they are booing is because they’ve been magnanimous in support of their team and been burnt. But by the same token, is that really being a good supporter? The whole point of supporting your team is to provide support that gives your team an advantage over its rival.
It’s a vexing issue. In the end, the fans are free to do what they want and if booing their team makes them feel better, then fair play to them. But then that’s the English, great supporters they are – the always-singing, always-loyal, never-say-die fans who boo their national team at least once a year. Go figure.
Were it not for Phil Mickelson’s spectacular stumble over the weekend at the WGC-Bridgestone in Ohio, Tiger Woods would no longer be the number one golfer in the world, a distinction he has held since 2005. Woods handed in his worst card as a professional golfer, tallying 18 over par, a full 30 shots and 77 places behind winner Hunter Mahan. Yet he still has a tenuous grip on the title; a distinction that seems less comfortable every time it’s mentioned.
About the time Woods was recovering from his 72 on Friday, I made a questionable bet with a friend for NZ$1000 that Tiger, 34, will not break Jack’s record of 18 majors. To be fair it was late at night and I was in the midst of being slightly over-served at the time. On the face of it, it’s a ballsy move to bet against him. Majors record or not, he’s widely renowned as the best golfer ever and statistics will back it up. He’s also not yet halfway through his 30’s and while major winners over 34 are slim pickings, this shouldn’t be an obstacle for the greatest there is. Just like it wasn’t for Nicklaus. If he returns to half the player he was from last decade, he could easily do it by the time he’s 40.
But is this such a bad bet? He’s obviously no spring chicken, but likewise, his body is not what it once was. Injuries to his back and knees have hampered him over time and there’s no guarantee they won’t bite again, especially as he ages. More importantly, his mental edge over his rivals has faded and will continue to do so with each tournament he doesn’t pick up the winner’s cheque. Even when he finishes in the top ten at a major – like he’s done this year – the guys ahead of him can bank those ‘holding off Tiger on Sunday’ reps. So the more fragile he becomes, the stronger the field gets. Indeed these are residual differences, but golf more than most is a game in which the slightest of margins can translate to the most significant of advantages.
Can he recover? It’s a fair question. Especially now that his journey is twice as hard since he has decided his house needs to be in order as well as his game. One wonders if he’ll get to the point where he will give up on his road to salvation and embrace the dark side. He could follow the Kobe Bryant road to redemption by using the bunker mentality, becoming a badass and saying to hell with the world. But you don’t get the feeling he will, lest he lose all of his sponsors and perhaps his kids.
There’s still the USPGA in Wisconsin to attend this week – the last major of 2010. And also Ryder Cup selection to address. At this point Tiger would need a coach’s pick to make the cut, since he’s 10th in the FedEx points race and only the top 8 get automatic entry. Tiger has intimated that he doesn’t want to be there if he’s playing like this; nobody playing like this should make the team. Yet he added the caveat that there’s still time to right his game. So a major tournament victory and the prospect of making the Ryder Cup team hang in the balance; more than enough incentive to break a two year major drought.
There’s an expectation with Tiger Woods, amongst most golf followers, that he’ll get back to his best; it’s just a matter of time. But this is a different Tiger Woods; no longer the front runner with the bullet proof resume, he’s gun shy. If he somehow opens his account for the year and wins the USPGA, he’ll be on 15 majors and in a much better position to get his life and game back on track – and things will surely come a bit easier again. However comparisons with Lazarus won’t happen this weekend. Even though the bookies have him installed as second favourite behind Mickelson, he’s as likely to MC as he is to be top 10.
This is the sad reality of the life and times of Tiger in 2010 – the worst year of his career. It’s possible he needs a break, because going through the motions and expecting the touch to return doesn’t remove the inner torment that’s betraying his confidence. Or maybe he should have a look at how Andre Agassi reinvented his career after a colossal tumble down the world rankings. Or perhaps he should just embrace the dark side. If he hit 19 still living large and not giving a crap about how he’s perceived, then the grand would almost be worth it.
With Pakistan in a perpetual state of disarray, it’s easy to overlook the fact that they can be a brilliant side every now and again. It seems like they have conspired to give away cricket matches on a regular basis over the years, willingly or unwillingly, and do their utmost to waste such a hotbed of talent in their possession by taking their rotation policy well outside the limits of normalcy.
Pakistanis really are fervent supporters of their cricket, but with the sport so closely tied to the state and its politics it’s hard to wedge in a leadership figure who can grab the system by the scruff, shake it up and pat it down so that it’s a functioning member of society again. Honestly, if there was ever a perfect job for Imran Kahn, it has to be the CEO of Pakistan Cricket HQ. But the influence of government ministers who call for the heads of players after a poor match is telling.
Unfortunately, new generations of cricket fans only know Pakistan to be the proverbial hot and cold performer. They never had Immy, 1992, the two W’s, multiple bamboozling spinners, Inzamam as a lithe 22 year old in Auckland, Inzamam as a burly 32 year old with an aversion to the quick single (or the simple 2), the majestic Miandad, the slimy but street-fighting Saleem Malik and The 12th Man at his best in Still The 12th Man with all those impossible Pakistani names. True comedy, but it was enviable. Ye gods they were a frightening prospect in the 80’s and 90’s. Especially with one of their own in the white coat.
All the more impressive then to see them drown the Aussies – in England of all places – the other week. True to form, though, they received an almighty shellacking by the Poms a week later. But this is what we’ve come to expect. Equally so, one of the worst cases of letting a team off the hook happened in Sydney earlier this summer. A first innings lead of 200 and they couldn’t seal the deal was almost as shameful as the endless line of dropped catches from their listless keeper Kamran Akmal. But it was on this tour that the emergence of a great new ball pairing was seen.
Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Aamer (Amir) are probably the most exciting opening bowlers in the world today. Asif, the right arm seamer who ambles up to the wicket and effortlessly floats the ball down is a BYC simulator’s dream. Beyond having a smooth and easy action to replicate, he is one of the finer proponents of swing bowling in the world. Some say James Anderson holds the mantle however Asif’s record (20 tests, 100 wickets @ 23, strike rate of 46) is better than world class. (For the record, Anderson’s 49 tests have reaped 176 wickets @ 32.5, strike rate of 58).
Such an effortless operator is nice to see. We live in a very moorish cricket society: there must be more runs; quicker runs; faster bowlers; more sixes; more boundaries. Everything must be bigger, faster or better, so it’s nice to see a successful artisan like Asif from the 80’s school of swing bowling. At 27 he still has a few good years in him and with his stress-free action and penchant for moving the ball, he could own the third seamer’s role well into his 30’s.
Mohammad Aamer reminds a lot of people of a young Wasim Akram. It’s probably fair since they are both lefties, however Aamer’s boy-band charms should never be held against Akram’s suave, nasal allure. There’s no contest. Likewise, there’s no contest when comparing their records after 11 tests, since Wasim was a far more efficient bowler (average of 25 compared to Aamer’s 34) at that stage of his career. Yet after 11 tests, the young southpaw from the Punjab region – in fact they’re both Punjabi lefties, so the younger of the two – has 36 wickets to Wasim’s 35. And this is a valid statistic when singing Aamer’s praises. He must be the unluckiest bowler in the world; the rate he beats the bat, then comes back and keeps beating the bat over and over without reward…his ability to sustain this pressure belies his mere 18 years.
At such a young age he is an impressive cricketer. One of the only bowlers who wears a headband, he’s also one of the best celebrators on the circuit – his arms-wide or running airplane is great, while he has a variety of fist pumps in his kit bag – legs wide, leaning back, or one knee down on the pitch – as well as being a good team celebrator and a good exponent of the high five. He also likes a bit of verbal with the batsman and has the highest score by a number 10 in an ODI: 73* against NZ.
His average will surely fall in the coming seasons, especially with three more tests in England this summer. Hopefully his batsmen will provide him something to defend, because his mixture of pace (regular attendant of the 140kph club), swing and accuracy should be a frightening prospect.
Especially with his mate at the other end.
Yesterday the NBA released its schedule for the first week of the new season, beginning October 26, as well as a couple of other marquee dates like Christmas, New Year’s Day and Martin Luther King Day. But these aren’t the first murmurs that the new season is approaching; far from it. If you haven’t been paying attention because it’s summer and there are better things to be concerned with than the NBA off-season, there’s been a lot going on.
Since the season ticked over on July 6, the landscape of the NBA has been altered quite dramatically by the movement of several players. Two of those players in particular, Chris Bosh and LeBron James, joined the Miami Heat. Elsewhere a number of teams got stronger on paper – frequently paying well over the odds to get there – but the Heat went all-in on their superstar strategy and have compiled a team for the ages it would seem. Already blesses with Dwayne Wade (who led them to the title in 2006) who’s a Top 3 guy in the league, they now have another Top 3 guy in James and a Top 15 guy in Bosh. They’ve surrounded them with role players and veterans; a below average supporting cast, but if you have the two best players on the court every night and 3 of the best 4, the other guys probably won’t matter so much. This is the theory anyway.
It looks like the Heat will be playing an unconventional style of ball without a traditional point guard. LeBron James will likely share the playmaking duties with Dwayne Wade and they will probably play an up-tempo style focussing on their speed and skill advantages, rather than employing half-court sets where their lack of size (they have few quality bigs, if any) will be exposed. It’s a novel method that brings to mind the Chicago Bulls from 1996 to 1998. They had no true point guard and a centre who was there to fill space. But they go down as probably the best team over any 3 year stretch ever, because they had an all-time Big 3: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman. The Heat will sell out stadiums all round the league, just like those Bulls. However they’re more likely to be reviled than revered; at least for now.
With this giant target on their back (which ironically takes the pressure off the LA Lakers who are gunning for a three-peat) fans everywhere want to make their home turf as hostile as possible for the visiting Heat. In retaliation to this, Miami is embracing the role of the Bad Guy. Take the example of Eddie House, who just signed for the Heat. LeBron James tweeted on his arrival “Welcome to team John Dillinger”, referencing the American outlaw of the 1930’s. The Heat are quite prepared for the vitriol they expect to face in opposing arenas and are meeting it with all the brash, third person-talking, ego-driven gusto of youth. Should make for a compelling season.
But when the league’s best players make such a big decision, issues arise. It’s widely believed that James in particular is taking the easy way out. The older generation of stars has weighed in already, with Jordan, Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley all saying they would rather have beaten each other than joined one another. It’s a fair point that sticks with the fans as well, if you consider the analogy of a lunch time game of ball anywhere in the world. When picking teams, you separate the two best players and they each pick players one by one. That’s how basketball works; that’s how sports work. And in the case of LeBron James, whose ceiling as a player is almost non-existent, it seems a shame that we can’t see him fulfil his potential by himself; that he needs the help of other great players to win. It’s believed that this will taint his legacy when all’s said and done, but even though he would rather win, no matter what the handicap, than win the old fashioned way, these posturings should be made at the end of his career not the middle.
In the wider sphere of things, the SuperFriends as they have become known, may be the start of a league-wide trend whereby players have more command over their destinations, and more importantly the players they end up with. Already, Carmelo Anthony is reportedly ready to leave a three year, $60 million extension with Denver on the table in favour of joining Amare Stoudemire and co in New York – so the theory goes – so that he’s got his own Big 3 capable of taking on Miami. A risky move, only a year before the next Collective Bargaining Agreement is to be fleshed out between the Players Association and the NBA (and its team owners), and the very real threat of another lockout looming. But if everyone else is doing it, then it must be cool, right?
Does this guy need another $60 million?
Such a strategy may widen the chasm between the haves and have nots, yet one can’t help but notice that the Knicks are very much one of the have nots, and have been for the past 30 years. Perhaps then, the writing is on the wall for small market teams, whose hopes of retaining superstars long enough to make a concerted run to the championship slipped away, along with LeBron’s talents to quality franchises in warm climates like the one on South Beach.
An alternate theory – one that seems much more relevant to the have nots and small market franchises – is that the NBA could regress to a more defence-oriented style, in an attempt to shut down the high-geared offences gathering down the track. Incidentally the league entered a period of defence-dominated teams after the Lakers had completed their last 3-peat. LA stacked their squad with talent but came unstuck against the Detroit Pistons in the Finals, one of the great defensive teams. The last decade was dominated by defence with San Antonio, Boston and Detroit dominating the decade.
Will history repeat? In nearly 3 months we’ll begin to find out.
