This weekend the All Blacks name their squad of 30 players to tour Asia, the UK and Ireland. In the lead up to the announcement, the inevitable questions arise about who should be taken, who should be left out and why there are no longer any bolters. But while the End Of Year Tour (or EOYT, as it has become known), which this year incorporates Bledisloe IV in Hong Kong with a Grand Slam tour, has been a place for testing new combinations and trying a few new things during the 7 year tenure of this coaching trio, things will be a bit more serious this year.
There are the obvious calls to leave Richie McCaw and Dan Carter at home in cotton wool so that they are well rested for the World Cup next year. But while the thinking is sound – it’s no secret that the depth behind these two is paper thin – the reality is that this is the first base camp on the ascent to World Cup 2010, to borrow an unfortunate analogy from the John Mitchell era. So while this season was a great fillip for rugby in NZ, this tour is the first stage of building for this time next year; losing momentum now would be a foolish move. At a time like this it’s best to keep the foot on the pedal and the collective throat of the opponents. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the first game of the tour against the Wallabies. They’re a team on the rise and came so close in Sydney; there’s no sense in giving them the taste of victory at such a crucial juncture in the four year cycle which international rugby has inexorably become.
So with that in mind, it’s worth noting the murmurs coming out of the All Blacks camp recently regarding a few players. There’s chat that contrary to the established beliefs, only two hookers and halfbacks will be touring, instead of the usual three. They take three on a tour like this so that if one of the two hookers/halfbacks in the squad of 22 goes down injured in the week leading up to a match, there is another one in the squad of 30 to cover, while another player may be sent for from NZ. The rationale behind the thinking this year is that there are so many contenders in the backs that any players that represent unusual utility value become much more valuable.
So…while taking two of each wouldn’t represent a huge selection dilemma since there are only two quality players in each position in NZ (Weepu, Cowan, Mealamu, Hore), if the not unlikely instance of injury befalls the squad, it’s hard to be too confident in the abilities of John Afoa throwing in a line-out or Aaron Cruden feeding a defensive scrum in the final five minutes of a close match. Injuries like that rarely take place, and if you were paying attention, the All Blacks only lose fly-halves in crucial test matches in the northern hemisphere. But it’s hard not to shake the thought that if someone does go down on a Friday night, the squad isn’t sufficiently covered.
Meanwhile there are those returning from injury who will want to force their way into the 30. Guys like Hore and Sivivatu should make the flight north, if for no other reason than Hore is the only legitimate backup to Mealamu, while Sivivatu is one of the top five contracted All Blacks and is its best counter-attacking weapon. The coaches will be confident of their ability to slip back into the groove with limited match play. Isaia Toeava is a favourite of the coaches but his job of making the squad will be a bit tougher than the other two. One of the best utility backs in the country and, quote unquote, the best passer in NZ (thank you Pat Lam), there’s a traffic jam on his road to the squad, with a plethora of midfield options available, even without the likes of Kahui and McAllister who will remain home injured.
Ali Williams won’t make the tour and is still a few months off top flight rugby but he’s another coach’s favourite and a player in the mould of Frank Bunce who always plays his best in a black jersey. There is talk that he’ll be farmed off to a British club to get a few games before the Super 15 begins, which isn’t a bad idea since he’s been out of rugby for the best part of 18 months. And of course there’s Dan Carter who still must recover from ankle surgery. Sure he’s a quick healer, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be anywhere near the 22 for Hong Kong.
So there are a few players who have been integral in the past but are now on the outside looking in. And their job is that much tougher since the All Blacks are unbeaten this year and most players that have stepped in have contributed strongly. But that’s what makes this week of the year so much fun for armchair enthusiasts, if not for the 40-odd players vying for 30 spots.
The front row will pick itself. Mealamu and Hore will travel even though both are recovering from injury, while Woodcock, the brothers Frank and Afoa will be the props. On that note, there seems to be a fair amount of depth in the front row in New Zealand, with the likes of Tialata and Crockett not getting a look in. Brad Thorn, Tom Donnelly, Anthony Boric and Sam Whitelock are unlikely to be challenged as the four best locks in the country and with a 16/14 split between backs and forwards, that leaves 6 loose forwards to travel. Obviously McCaw, Kaino and Read will be there, but who backs them up is interesting. It might be time to give Dan Braid the chance as the next best 7 in the country, with the thinking that if there’s nobody talented enough to be in McCaw’s shadow, there might as well be someone experienced enough. A back-up number 8 specialist is a good idea in the event that Read goes down in the next 12 months, while a blindside who covers lock would make sense as the last of the bunch.
In the backs is where the logjam exists. Clearly Weepu, Cowan and Carter pick themselves, while Slade might get the nod because he covers wing and fullback at a pinch. Jane, Dagg, Muliaina, Sivivatu, Nonu and Smith are safe bets (could this be more understated?), which leaves three positions available with about a dozen players forcing the issue. Rokocoko would be desperately unlucky to miss out, while Ranger could also feel aggrieved. But then you have names like Freuan, Crotty, Stanley, Delaney, Toeava, Cruden, Donald and the elephant in the room, Sonny Bill Williams. You’d have to expect the coaches will go with the players they know and those who are truly worthy of becoming a project. So in that case, yes to Toeava and SBW; no to Freuan and Stanley.
Props Halfbacks
Afoa (covers hooker) Weepu
Woodcock Cowan
O. Franks Fly Halves
B. Franks Carter
Hookers Cruden
Mealamu Slade
Hore Midfielders
Locks Nonu
Thorn Smith
Donnelly SBW
Whitelock Toeava
Boric Wing
Loose Forwards Sivivatu
McCaw Jane (covers fullback)
Kaino Rokocoko
Read Fullback
Braid Dagg
Vito Muliaina
Messam
