The prospect of losing to England has always been enough to spur the All Blacks into a winning performance, or near enough. Unbeaten in their last 8 encounters, the two losses they suffered prior to that streak were by a combined 5 points, and in the time since then, the closest the Red Rose came was in 2005 when New Zealand completed their first grand slam in 21 years. Yet while the grand slam is now arriving with the same metronomic expectation as Canterbury finishing the season in the provincial rugby final, the All Blacks enter this autumn’s test in unfamiliar territory.
It’s been 27 months since last succumbing to Australia and over a year since failing to finish on the right side of the ledger in a test match. Understandably the criticism from the shaky isles was on the harsher side of reasonable; a test loss brings out the best in armchair critics. But it was interesting to think about what may have happened had the shoe been on the other foot: your average Aussie pundit mightn’t have been all that concerned and perhaps would have been heartened that a blow-out was on the cards while their playmaker was still on the field
Nevertheless, the start of the grand slam kicks off this weekend and the coaching panel have resisted the notion of fielding the tried and tested. Rather than rotating, they are using their squad and have given starts to 4 players who wouldn’t otherwise get one. Williams, Gear, Whitelock and Mathewson should add vitality and speed around the park, with a mandate to run the English into the ground, in much the same manner that was dealt to the Springboks this season. While the selections compromise experience, there is still a wealth of expertise on the field and it is worth noting what an even more experienced team did against the Wallabies last weekend.
The bench selections will raise the ire of many. Yet coaches tend to reward incumbents and form players, both of which apply to Donald, and while his shortcomings are obvious he’s unlikely to have as acute an influence on the game two weeks running. Toeava, meanwhile, is the best utility back in the squad and has amassed a superb portfolio of work in the past 3 years at provincial and Super Rugby level. His failures in Hong Kong were glaring in isolation, but he should be better for the experience.
What the bench selections highlight is how quickly things can change in rugby. 4 weeks ago, the strength and depth of New Zealand’s outside back resources was comprehensive. Yet an injury or two can change the make up of the squad and all of a sudden you have new faces and old ones you may not have wanted to see so soon.
England will look to expose the All Blacks in the forwards, as is their want, but won’t have the same dynamism at the ruck that Australia have with a player like Pocock. In Hong Kong he was always a threat and constantly sucked the life out of any New Zealand pressure. While the English will attack with their physicality on defence, their knowledge of the nuances of ruck play isn’t in the same class as their opponents. On attack, New Zealand will be able to control the ruck without sending to many bodies to ground, yet perhaps their strategy will be to defend for much of the time, making England create before unleashing lightning counterattacks with their enormous yet nimble outsides.
England’s forwards are likely to be their best method of attack; perhaps it’s a sign of how far they’ve come since they last beat New Zealand that Mike Tindall is still in the centres. And while much is being made of their attacking back division, the ‘threatening English back three’ is a familiar story that never seems to materialise. The recall of Sheridan will provide a stern test for the All Blacks’ set piece, but one wonders if he, as well as Moody are returning a bit soon. England most likely will seek a victory using any means necessary; a tactic they will hope disrupts the flow of New Zealand and further exposes cracks in their confidence that were revealed last weekend.
Of great interest will be how New Zealand bounces back after defeat. The last time Henry’s team lost their first of two away from home, they lost the second (South Africa 2009) as well. And while they are still unbeaten in autumn tests in the northern hemisphere (excluding World Cups and Barbarians), there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that shows the end of a long winning streak can produce two or more losses in a row (Southland, ITM Cup, 2010; Dallas Mavericks, NBA, 2010; Houston Rockets, NBA, 2008; Indianapolis Colts, NFL, 2010). None of these examples are directly relevant to this weekend’s affairs, but don’t say you weren’t warned.
