Everyone’s got top-5’s and -10’s. Lists of who’s hot and, unfortunately, not. Some call it ‘trending’, which probably means ‘who is creating a lot of internet traffic at the moment?’
So who’s trending in the NBA? Almost a quarter of the way through the regular season, you can see trends taking shape. Inconsistencies and anomalies you might have seen from Team X start to look a bit more consistent. Sure, it’s still early days: the Celtics won as much as they lost after Christmas last season, but they made it to game 7 of the Finals; the Spurs consistently wait until March to start peaking; even the Nets lost their first 18 games, and they weren’t the worst team of all time. But 15 games are enough to reveal a team’s identity, or some of their DNA at the very least.
Miami Heat
Started as the biggest story of the summer, lost their first game on the road to the Celtics, proceeded to beat up lottery-bound teams before losing close ones at home and on the road. They are now a game over .500. Read that again if you like. A team touted as winning 70 games was 10-8. But we should have seen this coming. While they have James, Wade and Bosh, they have no size (or length, as they call it), no rebounding, no point guard, no bench and their two best players, Wade and James, have quite similar styles. This means smaller teams with less talent can out-rebound and out-hustle them, any team with a decent point guard – and there are many – can cut holes in them, and once the coach looks to his bench they’re in trouble. And since LeBron and Wade have two of the highest usage rates in the league, one is often standing around waiting for the other guy to do something. So they aren’t quite gelling yet, and when you add the fact that EVERY team in the league wants to beat them since they assumed the villain role in free agency, their task of doing so is a bit harder. So the Heat are trending down with no identity to speak of.
Still working it out
New Orleans Hornets
After the Saints won the Superbowl and the Hornets missed the playoffs, the last thing New Orleans wanted to see was James, Wade and Bosh teaming up in Miami. It planted the seed in Chris Paul’s head that maybe the grass was greener with some superstar buddies elsewhere. So it was much to everyone’s surprise that after the trade bells were sounding all summer for Paul, the Hornets started so well, at 10-0 they were the league’s last undefeated team. He is the centrifugal force – if the season finished now he would be a unanimous MVP choice – behind their resurrection. Even with the resurgence of guys like Okafor, Belinelli and West, as well as a commitment to defence from some unusual sources (undersized power forwards and white euro swingmen), Paul’s fingerprints are all over the Hornets early season form. Even though they’ve cooled slightly, with the Hornets trending right up, the chances of Paul leaving head in the opposite direction.
Everything cool?
LA Lakers
The two-time defending champion Lake-Show are rolling thus far. We know their identity and nothing much has changed, yet off-season recruits Barnes and Blake are insurance that will extend the shelf-life of Bryant and Derek. They are yet to welcome back starting centre Bynum, while they are getting career years out of Odom and Gasol. Meanwhile in his quest for greatness, it appears Kobe finally ‘gets it’. As in, he gets that making your team mates better and achieving a common goal as a group is far better than seeing your name up in lights when it’s all said and done. So Kobe and the Lakers are cruising right now, and one presumes they’ll become more complete once Bynum returns. Thus they are trending right up.
Still got it
Phoenix Suns
The hallmarks of the Suns teams over the past decade have been a great pick and roll game, a high tempo offence, a predilection for long range shooting and a lack of the fundamentals of defence. The common factor has been Steve Nash, the best shooter in the history of the NBA. Yet this year, while he remains the lynchpin, Phoenix looks a bit different. Or a lot different. There’s a glaring hole where Amare Stoudemire used to be, so the pick and roll game has taken a few steps backwards. Their presence in the painted area is vastly diminished. At least we know the Suns’ identity; we always have and they are unlikely to alter it. They certainly haven’t this year, but the new pieces (Warrick, Turkoglu, Childress) aren’t half as effective as the old one. The roster doesn’t quite fit together, with a lack of rebounding and no inside presence being the obvious shortcomings. Yet that hasn’t held them back in the past. What they may lack the most is an All Star foil for Nash whose twilight years need some proper support. They like to prove the doubters wrong, but this year they may have trouble. Trending down for 2011.
Need help?
Boston Celtics
After losing Perkins in game 6 of the finals last season (until March 2011), the C’s bolstered their front line with Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal. While both have battled injuries, they have more than made up for the loss of Perkins and Rasheed Wallace from last year’s squad. Injuries are probably the only thing keeping this team out of the finals, but they have had to overcome them before. It’s part of this team’s identity: a veteran defensive unit that grinds opponents down and has an incredibly balanced and complementary roster. The main difference this season is that Rondo is trending way, way up. Last year he was given the keys to the Celtic’s car; this year he’s taken the ownership papers too. That and the Big 3 (Garnett, Pierce, Allen) are all healthy for a change. So the C’s are trending right up.
Making the leap
Houston Rockets
Having spent the past few seasons with their best players (Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady) out of the line-up, the Rockets are used to competing hard with limited resources. The nature of the NBA means this is not an affliction limited to the Texans, but when Yao entered the season under a cloud of injury the assumption was that Houston would valiantly battle on with quality pieces in Brooks, Martin, Scola and Battier. So to see the Rockets go 0-4 to start the season and struggle since against middling teams suggests 2011 could be a year of change. It’s almost like they have a sprinter’s mindset with the body of a weightlifter: they have the pieces to be an inside/outside team with great post presence and spot up shooters, but they have gotten used to a high tempo game since Yao missed the whole of last season. Now with him back, they can’t seem to find what it is they should be doing. They should recover at some point, but in the stacked Western Conference it’ll be insufficient for a playoff berth. So a season on the slide beckons; a downward trend.
Old photo, but quality
Chicago Bulls
Last year this team finished 42-42 and got rolled by Lebron in the first round. Don’t be surprised if they pay that favour back in the post-season. They added some nice pieces in Korver and Matthews, but the trump card was Carlos Boozer. No surprises then that with Boozer having not played thus far due to injury, Rose is playing out of his mind and Noah is having stellar start to the year. Under new coach Tom Thibodeau (former Boston assistant) they have a defensive presence and their role players are complimenting the core nicely. Once Boozer comes back and shoulders a bunch of the burden currently on the shoulders of Rose and Noah, they should be a handful. And if the rankings allow it, the Heat may know as well come playoff time. Until then, Chicago is trending in an upward direction.
Ready for take off
Oklahoma City Thunder
The young guns of the league are having a tough start to the year. That happens when expectations are higher than ever and opponents themselves know what to expect. As with the team’s identity, their current struggles start and finish with Kevin Durant, the reining scoring champ and a pre-season MVP candidate; as he goes they go. Right now they look like they’ve regressed which is odd, but considering that Durant isn’t even the MVP of his own team might go some way to revealing the struggles. He’s not playing with the same efficiency as last season, even after a hugely successful stint with Team USA at the World Champs. The Thunder remain a young team with huge potential and to its credit the organisation isn’t rushing into things. But after a breakout year in 2010, other teams may have their number. One hopes they don’t take things slowly and their window closes like the Blazers may have just done. So while they have a great core of young, ripening talent, their current downward trend is slightly concerning.
Not so fast
