After one of the more bizarre weeks of the NBA Playoffs in recent memory, it’s nice to settle down with our Final Four and do a little analysis as to what might befall these semi-finalists. Not many pundits – certainly not me – would have picked three series sweeps in the second round, and even fewer people, I surmise, would have thought the Boston Celtics would have despatched the league’s best team so convincingly last night. And yet that’s what happened. Out West, the Phoenix Suns lifted their Spurs curse, beating San Antonio in 4 games, while the Lakers made the Utah Jazz look small and ineffective in their 4 game rout. In the East, riding a 14 game winning streak dating back to April 4, the Orlando Magic completed the most comprehensive 4 game sweep in NBA history, winning by an average of 25 points per contest over the Atlanta Hawks. And as mentioned, the Boston Celtics just wrapped up the city of Cleveland and confined its sports franchises to roughly another 40 years without a trophy.
So the landscape is now a bit more settled. With LeBron James and his Cavaliers now out of the playoffs (only the second team ever to win 60+ games in two straight seasons and not make the finals in either of those years – how good is the NBA stat machine?!), the subplot that has threatened to take over the whole season – James’ impending free-agency – will most likely still get an obscene amount of coverage, however it will surely do so in the backdrop of what is set to be a compelling Conference Finals. With Bron hurting after elimination and contractually unable to talk to prospective teams until July, he will stay away from the media until then, at the earliest. Hopefully out of sight, out of mind. Because seriously, if he’s so good, why hasn’t he won with Cleveland? Ok, that’s another story. (And yes, he is that good). So, where does that leave us? An excellent Final Four…
Phoenix Suns
Back in the middle of the decade, the Phoenix Suns were one of the most exciting teams around. In fact, they were one of the most exciting teams in history. While this team is not quite the same, it’s cut from the same cloth, with a couple of minor adjustments. Steve Nash was then, as he is now, pulling the strings with this team. Nash joined 9 all-time greats in winning back-to-back league MVP awards (2005, 2006), but while his numbers have stayed incredibly consistent, at the ripe age of 36 he isn’t held in the same regard as the young bucks of the game. Whatever. Nash is statistically the BEST SHOOTER IN NBA HISTORY, the Suns now play defence, have a bench, a focussed and dominant big in Amare Stoudamire, have learnt how to be tough and grind out wins, have ditched the curse of the Spurs, can still score at will (this year they had the best rating offence in the league, and one of the top 5 all-time) and are riding some serious momentum. This is a nice catalogue of plusses. They also have a nice little stat thanks to Jason Richardson, their wing scorer who made his name as a Dunk Champion nearly 10 years ago. In the playoffs, if he scores 20+ points, they win. Over the season, the Suns are 30-4 every time he scores 20+. So if he has four good games in a series, you can make up the rest.
Unfortunately for the Suns they only started playing defence this year. It’s a pretty new concept to them, and while it’s working at the moment, you have to question how they will go when they NEED to get stops against defending champions, who know what it takes to get a bucket when required. They also lack a bit of size, and their dominant big (Stoudamire) isn’t genetically predisposed to rebounding for some reason. While they have a lot of good 3-point shooters, which will draw defenders away from protecting the basket, they don’t have a lot of big bodies to protect the rim themselves. The biggest question will be stylistic. They are always running, pushing the ball down the floor, trying to get quick baskets before the opposition gets set and forcing the tempo; they don’t win if they score fewer than 100 points in a game. However in the playoffs, this tempo slows because of the importance of each possession. Thus far, they have done just fine without having to significantly adjust for changes in playoff tempo. But against the best in the West, who play at their own pace (historically Phil Jackson doesn’t get sucked into a scoring match with the Suns) the Suns will need to be scoring the basketball consistently to progress. Whether they can do this for four games remains to be seen.
LA Lakers
The Suns meet the LA Lakers, the league’s second most successful franchise. Defending champion LA will have home court advantage for the series and by every measure, are a compelling squad. They’ve reached the finals the past two seasons, have the best ‘length’ in the league (tall bodies, long arms, disrupting passing lanes, makes for stingy defence – if you’re watching, you’ll hear a lot about their length), boast 3 excellent 7-footers, one lock-down defender in Ron Artest who also happens to be crazy, the best player left in the post-season in Kobe Bryant, who in the eyes of many is also the best closer in the sport – code for ‘guy you want to have the ball when the game’s close and time is short’ – as well as the best coach in the history of playoff basketball (arguably the best, period), Phil Jackson, who owns 10 championship rings. The Lakers have got to be the favourites, as the above list will attest. They’ll have their ‘us against them’ championship mentality as well as the best player and coach in the series. When you have one of these in a series it gives you an advantage; if you have both, you should have control.
However the Lakers are beatable. While they have turned a corner since they split the first four games against Oklahoma City, they are vulnerable at point guard, 3-point shooting, with their bench, and ironically with Kobe. Starting point guard Derek Fisher has trouble defending anything quicker than a fast walk, while his backup Jordan Farmar is inconsistent at best. In fact, aside from Lamar Odom, the whole Lakers’ bench doesn’t provide half the energy or output that guys like Dudley, Amundsen and Dragic give the Suns. While there will be shorter rotations and the starters will play more minutes, any inability of the bench to add firepower while the best players sit will be much more acutely felt. Finally, if things don’t go the Lakers’ way early, watch for Kobe to try and put his team on his back. Kobe is better when he’s getting his team mates involved as this creates more space for him to score in the flow of the offence. But if he tries to beat the Suns by himself, he may play into their hands.
Prediction: Lakers in 6.
Why: because LA is into their flow right now, Kobe Bryant exists and the Suns can’t match their size (and length!).
Orlando Magic
Rarely has a team wreaked such unopposed havoc in the post-season and received so little kudos. The Magic swept round one with their best player (and reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Dwight Howard plagued by foul trouble and lack of court time, while round two was the most comprehensive sweep in NBA history. They have the best defender in the league, the best defence in the league, home court advantage for the rest of the playoffs, are defending Eastern Conference champions, have a stacked roster with plenty of playoff experience, the deepest bench in the league, a slew of 3-point shooters who broke the NBA record for most threes in a season (841), are well rested and best of all, they believe they are the best team left. Last year they knocked out a much better Cavs team than this year’s version in 6 games in the Conference Finals. This year they are slightly more formidable. Point guard Jameer Nelson was injured for most of the playoffs last year but has become the focal point for this year’s offence. The offence is a typical inside-outside game where they send it into Dwight Howard who draws double teams before kicking it out and swinging it round to find the open man, which is more often than not, a 3-point shooter. Defensively they strangle teams and intimidate them away from the paint because of Howard’s sheer presence and ability to alter shots.
But again, while they seem like a team geared to win it all (for the first time), they are eminently vulnerable. When watching them play, you realise that they live and die by the 3 ball. If they’re going in, it’s tough to beat; if they aren’t, it’s tough to watch. Because shooting is such an instinctual motion, sometimes shots just don’t drop; an off shooting night can come out of nowhere and this affects a team like the Magic so much more, because they rely less on getting to the rim. You also have to wonder about the amount of rest they’ve had. With 6 days off after the first round and 5 days off after the second, are the Magic really in the rhythm of the playoffs? (Think 2003 All Blacks in Melbourne, 2007 All Blacks in Corsica). They haven’t been tested by a good team and have so far been removed from anything that resembles cut-throat competition. Are they good for the rest, or will they be underdone? Finally, their roster is quality but slightly enigmatic. Rashard Lewis can drift out of a series, Vince Carter has a big question mark hanging over his toughness and his legacy, Howard is dominant but his post game is relatively weak and his free-throw shooting is poor, Jameer Nelson has been the playoff MVP thus far, but he hasn’t come up against a quality opponent. Questions remain about these guys, which makes it hard to gauge how good they really are – even though they have been utterly dominant.
Boston Celtics
Not gonna lie, the C’s are my guys. I’ll be as objective as I can, but beware of any bias. This is a team that signed perennial underachiever/final piece of the puzzle Rasheed Wallace in the off-season (who went on to predict a 70-win season), retained their (supposedly) healthy-again captain/leader/warrior King Kevin Garnett, started off with a 25-3 record and looked like the best team by a long way – a return to their 2008 championship form. Then Christmas came. After a Christmas day victory, ironically over Orlando, the Celtic’s essentially became a middle of the road team until the playoffs, losing as many as they won and losing more games with a 10 point lead than any other (who doesn’t love a good stat?! Shame on you). They were front-runners who let games slip; a classic example of losing focus. Yet at times throughout the season, they suffered injuries to KG, Paul Pierce, Marquis Daniels and Glen Davis, openly questioned the value of their point guard Rajon Rondo early on, shopped their best shooter Ray Allen at the trade deadline (who happened to have career best numbers after the deadline passed and he stayed in Boston), rejigged their bench for the run home, looked lifeless for the best part of 4 months, yet still managed to cruise past the NBA’s best, the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Where has this team been? Whatever, they are in the Conference Finals with unfinished business.
With the options available (Magic), most people are choosing to call the Celtics underdogs, and fair enough. However, people must remember, this is a team that has claimed that they will turn it on when they want to and successfully done so, a team with great size and enough to trouble the Magic (as good as the Lakers, but they don’t quite have the length). There are 3 hall of fame certainties and a point guard in Rondo who just played one of the three best all-round playoff games EVER in submitting a 27-19-13 against Cleveland (and if I may, Rajon Rondo has the potential to make a mockery of every team left and go on to win the Finals MVP if he gets great support from the Big 3). They are battle-ready from beating the league’s best team (and two of the top 3 players in James and Dwayne Wade) and most importantly, are mentally tougher than the other three teams left. Since Garnett arrived at the Celtics, this team is resoundingly viewed as the team that everyone wants to beat the most. They are hated. They talk more trash than anyone else and they walk with a justified swagger predicated on a team defence that doesn’t give anyone an inch. They won the title in ’08 and surely believe they would have done the same last year if injury hadn’t robbed them of their leader. They maintained their champion’s mindset this year (save for criminally mailing in the regular season) and will be the toughest to beat in a seven game series because they literally go to war with you. Throw in the most daunting home crowd remaining (less of a problem because they won’t have home court in this round or the next should they advance) and their very own Celtic Pride, and they are a formidable prospect.
But again, questions remain. This is an aging, if not old, team. Sometimes that means experience, other times it can mean athletically inferior. Smaller, quicker teams can take advantage of Boston’s slow pace and attempt to run them into the ground. The Magic may not want to do this but with so many outside shooters, the Celtic defence won’t be able to stay at home. This will test the athletic ability of a squad possibly on its last legs. Meanwhile, for such a great defensive team, these Celtics don’t rebound all that well. They grab a relatively small percentage of the other team’s shots and are routinely out-hustled on the offensive glass. So not a lot of second chance opportunities for themselves, and more than enough for the other team, especially with the NBA’s rebounds leader Dwight Howard in the opposition. Finally, the most pertinent question is which team will show up. They sat back all regular season, wanting to switch it on when it matters; by all accounts, the NBA doesn’t play out this way. This team hasn’t been mentally focussed all year; expect the Magic to try and exploit this.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Why: because nobody expects them to win, defence wins championships and they are hungrier.
