The worst thing about writing a preview for something after it’s already begun is having your credibility called into question. There must be a suspicion that I am basing my thoughts on what has transpired in Game One, which took place overnight. I’d like to assure you, I haven’t seen any of it; haven’t even checked the score. Which makes doing this all the more frustrating, because I have to wait an eternity before I can even get a sniff of it. The things we do for credibility. Still not impressed? Well check out my picks for the playoffs this season. 79 out of 98 for a click over 80%, and an unassailable lead in the ESPN Stat Geek Forum. So enough with the explications; time for a preview.

Together the Boston Celtics and the Lakers franchise (Minneapolis and Los Angeles) have accounted for 33 of the 63 NBA titles ever won. They have some of the biggest names in NBA history, and together they are the most famed rivalry in the sport; perhaps even all American sports. They have history, superstars, bad blood and best of all, they combine these things in the NBA Finals every other decade. This year is a rematch of the 2008 Finals series, in which the two storied (but recently cobbled together) franchises went 6 games, with Boston – clearly the better team – winning it all. This year will be different for a number of reasons, but at the same time you could look at it as a case of the more things changing, the more they remain the same.

The most obvious difference between the two sides this time around is home court advantage. The Lakers finished the regular season second overall (to the Cleveland Cavaliers)       , meaning if the Cav’s got knocked out (which they did) and the Lakers made the Finals (which they did) they would have home court (4 games out of 7 at home). In 2008, the Celtics had home court after winning 67 regular season games, and won all 3 home games in the Finals. They also mugged LA in game 5 to suck any vestiges of life out of the Lakers. The quirk of it this time is that Boston have had home court only once so far in the 2010 playoffs (against Miami), but have still managed to beat the best two regular season teams (Cleveland, Orlando) against pretty overwhelming odds, by winning away from home. And how. They slaughtered Cleveland in games 2 and 5 in Ohio, and killed the series against the Magic by winning the first two games in Florida. The Lakers are probably unconcerned, since they are unbeaten at home in the playoffs this year and have only lost 3 times there in the last 3 seasons. But looking at the regular season, Boston was the second best road team (they also beat the Lakers in LA). I’d expect them to win one of the first two in LA, but by the same token don’t be surprised if LA take one of the middle three games in Boston (2-3-2 format; 2 in LA, 3 in Boston, last 2 in LA) as they also won in Boston in the regular season. It’s so difficult to win 3 games in succession in the playoffs; don’t expect the home team to have it all its own way.

The cast of characters on each team is more or less the same as it was in 2008, but each team has gone through some changes; upheaval even. LA has cut the excess fat (Vlad Radmanovic) from its starting five and added a premier defender/madman in Ron Artest. Artest will be primarily used on the defensive end, specifically to shut down Paul Pierce. In 2008, Kobe guarded Pierce enough to run him ragged; when it came time to carry the load offensively, he fell short. This time round, Artest will shoulder that load, allowing Kobe to stay fresh(er). Centre Andrew Bynum didn’t play in 2008, but had a great regular season this year. Unfortunately he got injured late in the year and will play with an injured knee, so his effectiveness will be questionable. The Lakers wanted Bynum there to take the load off Pau Gasol and to add a shot blocker in the paint, so they will be restricted as Bynum is. It’s worth noting that the Celtics have handled Shaq and Dwight Howard in successive series, so an injured Bynum won’t pose much of a threat. Kobe Bryant, fresh off a great series against Phoenix, is the undisputed kingpin of this team. He’s fresher than he has been in some time (thanks to Artest) and his game looks more like the assassin of old. They have a quality veteran in Derek Fisher who will take more charges than anyone else in the series and Lamar Odom off the bench who adds great versatility, but has a tendency to go missing in a series. At home he’s electric, away he’s lethargic. The most important figure on the Lakers team is definitely Pau Gasol. Now you may think the Lakers won’t win anything if Kobe doesn’t get going, which is true to an extent. But Gasol – the most skilled/best passing/most unselfish big in the league – will NEED to get his if the Lakers want to repeat as champions. He is the catalyst for the Lakers’ success; by that I mean if he is scoring, rebounding and passing from the high post, LA are near enough to unbeatable. Beyond that, the Laker bench is pretty flimsy. They’ll be relying on their A-List celebrities (Kobe/Pau/Odom) to wreak havoc when in possession.

This Celtics starting five has never lost a playoff series (7-0; Garnett injured last season when they didn’t repeat as champs). They are confident this will be enough to get them over the line. It is a veteran group with a new spark in Rajon Rondo, who is the steering wheel of this vehicle. To say that it’s his team is a bit of a stretch. If he didn’t have three future hall of famers around him, he wouldn’t be nearly as effective, but he certainly has the reins and calls the shots. Ok, so maybe it is his team. Whatever, he is a legitimate point guard in the NBA and he is the catalyst for what the Celtics do. He’s first team All-NBA Defense, lightning quick, has the eyes of a hawk, and is displaying toughness of a player well beyond his experience. They have Ray Allen who possesses the prettiest shot in the NBA, and who put up career best numbers after the All-Star break. He’s in his 14^th season. Paul Pierce is the go-to scorer and the barometer of the Celtics. But while they need him to play well to win, as he proved in the Cleveland series, if his scoring is shut down, it doesn’t automatically mean they lose. He was hounded by LeBron James while having to guard him also, leading to some particularly poor numbers. But they won the series because he got great support from his teammates (and he’s an elite defender). In Kevin Garnett, the Celtics have one of the top 25 players ever, but one who is past his prime. Thanks to injuries in the last two years, the KG looks older and slower than ever before. After a great series against Cleveland, he leveled off against Orlando (he was guarded by reining Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard). But I would expect him to have a strong series. He’ll match up with Pau Gasol who is more like Antawn Jamison than Dwight Howard, and he’ll always anchor their defence. Kendrick Perkins, a prime low post defender, will be effective and little more. Beyond that, the Celtics bench offers more than LA. They have 2 quality role playing bigs in Rasheed Wallace (is he really so unpredictable now? 2 straight series of quality off the bench) and Glen Davis, as well as Nate Robinson who could have a field day against his opposing slower guards; or he could go 3-25 in game 3 and kill their chances. Probably best not to get too high on him after a breakout performance and that’s all. Picking a winner on paper doesn’t work. But if it did, you might go with Boston’s depth and balance over LA’s quality/potential.

The most glaring difference between the sides stands out like the contrast of their green and yellow jerseys. They have differing styles, to say the very least, and the last time they met in the championship round, it was the deal breaker. This time round, it should have as much to do with the outcome as the performance of their key players. The Lakers like to score the basketball. In their three playoff series this year, they have averaged well over 100 points per contest (I can’t be exact, because if I check on the internet I risk finding out the result and undoing all this hard work). I wondered aloud whether it might come back to haunt them against another high scoring team in the Suns, but they were the better team and for the most part, it wasn’t an issue. The Celtics play the antithesis of that style. They are a defensive team. They like to keep the opposition below 90 points and very rarely break the 100 point barrier themselves. If the scores in these games exceed 100 points expect the Lakers to win; if they stay below that line, it favours Boston. It could be as simple as that, while not being all that simple. Because the Lakers are a fantastic defensive unit, while Boston has so much offensive firepower as well. Interestingly enough, the saying goes Defence Wins Championships. And it does, in any sport. The Celtics have the best team defence in the league and it’s indicative that they stopped Dwayne Wade in round one, LeBron James in round 2, and Dwight Howard in round 3. Each made the All-NBA first team, yet each had their team shut down. It was less about shutting the superstar down, and more about cutting off his help. Kobe is better than the other three, and if you were in a fox hole, you wouldn’t choose anyone else. His supporting cast is also superior to the other three and he’s hitting his straps right now. If the Lakers can penetrate the Boston defence and get want they want out of it, it probably won’t matter how well-balanced an offence Boston has; they won’t be able to compete in a scoring battle with LA.

Everyone always talks about the playoffs coming down to matchups. There are a couple of interesting matchups in this series that could tip the balance one way or the other. Firstly, who will Kobe guard? If he guards Rondo, he’ll be working hard to close down his space which may affect Boston’s ability to get their offence going. However Rondo is an elite point guard who requires attention at all times. Otherwise he could guard Ray Allen. Allen does all his work off the ball so Kobe will be chasing him around the court all day and fighting through screens. This will sap his energy, but as JJ Redick proved, relentlessly chasing Allen – sticking on him so he knows you’re always there – can put him off his shot. It’s a case of picking your poison, but he’ll probably end up guarding Rondo since Kobe is one of the best on-ball defenders in the game. This gives LA the advantage in the matchup, although Rondo will hardly be quaking in his Nikes. His game is effective no matter who guards him. What it might do is lessen the impact of Kobe The Roaming Defender. When he roams, he creates havoc coming from the weak side, causing turnovers and instigating the fast break. This will be negated in this series, since Rondo has a semi-proficient jump shot and it’s just stupid to give him too much room. To digress, it shouldn’t matter who Kobe guards with reference to him being worn down. It’s THE FINALS! Tiredness shouldn’t be an issue.

The Ron Artest-Paul Pierce matchup is important in the context of this series, because as I mentioned, if you stop Pierce, you take away a lot of Boston’s punch and momentum. I think we can safely assume that Artest won’t spontaneously combust like a lot of people have been hoping/expecting this season, so no obvious Boston advantage there. By the same token, we shouldn’t automatically see a great defender on Pierce and think he’s rendered ineffective. So no obvious advantage for LA. What Pierce proved in the Cleveland series is that he doesn’t need the gaudy numbers to be effective. He did quite well guarding LeBron (even though James exploded once or twice and had an excellent series by the numbers), and when he needed to he had a huge performance (game 5) which tipped the scales of the series. Pierce will pick his spots in this series; he won’t go off like he did in 2008, because Artest is bigger and more physical than Radmanovic/Bryant. But there are a couple of potential ramifications to watch here. With Artest guarding Pierce, Kobe won’t have to. This wore him down last time because Pierce is a big, physical matchup. Kobe will be doing a lot of running guarding Allen/Rondo, but it won’t disintegrate him physically like last time. So Kobe will be (relatively) fresher offensively. This is exactly what LA wants and needs. At the same time, Paul Pierce will be guarding Ron Artest. This is hardly worth worrying about if you’re Boston. Artest is effective on offence when he cuts and posts up. He won’t be able to do a lot of cutting because Boston’s team defence is so tight, and he won’t be able to post Pierce up. So while Pierce had a poor series because a premier defender named LeBron was guarding him, it was as much a case of him having to guard LeBron that negated his quality. Pierce won’t have nearly as much trouble guarding Artest in this series, so his offence shouldn’t suffer as much because he’s not being worn down at both ends of the floor consistently. Great matchup, though. Could decide the series.

Finally, the Garnett-Gasol tet-a-tet is probably the most important. If Gasol gets going, advantage Lakers. If he doesn’t, Kobe has to shoulder so much more burden. It’s important to note, like the Conference Finals against Dwight Howard, this becomes Garnett/Perkins/Davis/Wallace vs. Gasol. The Caltics will throw bodies at Gasol because they think he is a bit flimsy and they don’t think he likes the physicality. But the most important facet is whether Garnett can make this happen first up. Garnett’s knee troubles have taken a couple of steps of quickness from him, but he still has great length and is a ferocious defender. If he can defend Gasol – who has a wide array of post moves and is a guard trapped in the body of a 7 footer – and keep him away from the basket (and off the boards), the Celtics have a huge advantage. They will foul him as much as possible since he’s a not a great free-throw shooter (still, he’s pretty good), and generally get up in his face and make life difficult for him. They want him to know they are around at all times. And if Garnett can hit his 18 footers, this will drag Gasol out to the perimeter and away from the rebounds where he is a quality rebounder. That all sounds like a simple formula for the Celtics: beat him up, watch him crumble. But Gasol is much better than that. If he’s not scoring, he is a willing passer who sets up his teammates better than any big in the league. He’s also the best team-player on the Lakers, so if he’s not getting touches, he stays in the game. He’s a true pro (like so many euro’s) and a quality big man, but he’s unproven against a big physical team like the Celtics. Whoever wins this battle takes a grip on the series.

So with the series having started before I even started my preview, it’s probably a good idea to wrap this up. If you’ve seen Game One, you probably know a lot more than me at this very moment about how the series might take shape. The biggest storyline, as usual, focuses on Kobe and the Lakers. So irresistible coming into the series, they must be the favourites again, right? Worth noting that in the 2008 Conference Finals, Kobe had a great series against the Spurs before crumbling in the Finals. Even last year, his Finals series was good but he took a LOT of shots to get there. So we’ve heard this before. About the Lakers too. Offence is just so good, so much depth (like Farmar and Brown?), etc. It’s taken me a while to make my prediction for this series, publicly at least. In private, I immediately thought Lakers in 6. The team with the best coach and the best player in the series generally wins, while they have home court and some quality sidekicks. But the more I thought, the more it looks to me like Boston. They have the balanced attack, the best defence and the key matchups are more likely to favour them. They are a great road team, and while everyone focuses on this series being a revenge match for the Lakers from 2008, they seem to have forgotten the amount of seething that the Celtics have been doing since the Lakers took what they believe was their title last year. They have been hurting ever since and they will love nothing more than to wrest it back off them. This has all the makings of an epic series – we may even get lucky and it goes the distance – but like I said, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

Celtics in 6.