So long is the NBA season that not even 2 weeks after the 2010 Finals concluded, the 2011 NBA Draft has already been and gone. So it wouldn’t be out of place to say that the 2011 season has begun. Pre-season, that is. And this year’s pre-season has a LOT more significance attached to it, because as of July 1st, the floodgates opened and the best free-agent class of all time (BFACAT?) are free to enter the market.

 

A little bit of background to begin. Every year on July 1, any player whose contract from the previous season ends, is officially allowed to talk to prospective employers. Basically they are off contract and can talk to any team that wants to sign them; essentially they are parading themselves to the highest bidder (or vice versa, vis a vis the franchises) in the hope of landing a ‘max deal’ – in this case we are talking about the best of the best. There is a ceiling to what the players can earn that is defined by the salary cap, which is set by the league every year. A maximum contract is a percentage of that total cap and this year it’s just over $16 million. It also shows that no matter how much someone earns, they will generally always chase the money and ensure the public they are doing what’s best for their family. Because when you make $70 million over 5 years, that extra $5 million makes all the difference to covering school fees.

 

As an aside that has no relevance to this year’s free agency or the salary cap. Late last season, Kobe Bryant was signed to a 3 year extension with the LA Lakers. They will pay him $83.5 million over those next three years, with his final season worth $30.4 million. Just thought you might find it interesting.

 

Anyway, this year is different because a bunch of superstars are off contract and are all looking to get theirs. Led by LeBron James, this group comprises of Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire, Rudy Gay, Ray Allen and a few more. So a pretty huge amount of fast-twitch fibres and experience (but alas, only two championships), and a group of owners willing to unload the Slovenian trade deficit to get them. Some of them, like Allen and Nowitzki are looking for the final payday of their illustrious careers.

 

Over the past 2 seasons, the teams jostling to sign these players have been tweaking, shuffling and in the case of the New York Knicks, flushing their rosters down the drain, just so they will have enough cap room to make a run. Aside from New York, the New Jersey Nets, LA Clippers, Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat all have enough cap room to sign one of these so-called Max Players and are seen as the major players. In some cases they have enough to sign two Max Players, while the Miami Heat, if they can strip their roster back to the bare essentials, might just be able to sign 3. Other clubs like the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets and LA Lakers will either create some wiggle room or break the bank and pay luxury tax (every dollar you spend over the salary cap, you must pay another dollar to the league as a penalty; it is then split up and paid out to all franchises under the cap) to make a run in free agency. There are also clubs like Phoenix and Cleveland who will do their best to retain their stars. Unfortunately they will most likely leave town and leave their former employers out in the cold; they’ll have money to spend but their prime target is gone, while the rest of the free agent class will have made up their minds as well.

 

This is important to note, because with so many teams able to spend Max Money, in some cases multiple times over, this assumes that there are many players of Max Money value. This is simply not the case, and there is no doubt some teams will overpay someone based on what they have to spend, rather than what the player is worth. For example, Rudy Gay, a swingman at the Memphis Grizzlies is considered part of this group. In any normal marketplace, when there aren’t a dozen teams willing to spend Max Money, he would maybe command $10 million a season. Maybe. But this is the NBA, a league where Charlie Villanueva can earn $12 million a season. So anything is possible. What this will do eventually is inflate the value of the market meaning some teams will get burnt later on, when their $15 million investment over 5 seasons isn’t worth quite what they thought. 

 

And why are there so many teams with money to spend? The reason they’ve been as frantic as a volunteer for a Democratic Party candidate in the lead-up to the convention? It’s no coincidence. They all want to land the Big Fish: LeBron James. If you want to win the race, you have to be in the race, and all of those teams mentioned above are chasing this one signature. The one player that can turn their franchise around and bring it legitimacy, and with any luck (because this is important also), titles. Multiple titles. Fortunately for these franchises, there happens to be a few stars available if LeBron goes elsewhere, so there is less risk for going all-in on LBJ.

 

A small but relevant piece of information with important ramifications: a few of these players have become close friends off the court and during the last Olympics, some of them decided they should try to play together when they are off contract next. The big 3 it appears, are James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. But while there will be franchises hungry to sign two or three of these players together, their current teams hold the highest cards when it comes to terms of any new contract they wish to sign. As part of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA), if a player has been with a team for 5 years or more, once he comes off contract that team can sign him for longer and pay him more than any other team over that period. This is designed so that the fans who watched Player X grow can see him flourish and play the rest of his career there; it promotes One-Franchise Players because their team can offer them more money and security (is that word really appropriate?) than their rivals. So Cleveland, Miami and Toronto can offer their franchise players more money when it’s all said and done, and this is an important note when guessing how this free-agency bonanza will take shape.

 

Now the biggest question of them all…what is LeBron’s destination? It’s an important one because while he is the most sought after prize, there are a few wrinkles worth noting before we discuss his most likely new uniform. Namely, LeBron was born and raised in Akron, Ohio, so the Cleveland Cavaliers are home for him. People wonder whether he’ll bolt for the bright lights of a bigger market or stay loyal to his home and his extremely loyal fans – the same fans that booed him when the Cav’s lost game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semi’s at home to Boston. It’s important to know that what everyone in the media is saying and speculating is just that: speculation. Nobody knows where he’ll end up, but he has made it explicitly clear that his motivation for choosing his next team is winning. So he wants to find the team that will give him the best shot at winning.

 

Dwayne Wade on the other hand is in a different position altogether. He won a championship in 2006 with his current team, the Miami Heat. His coach that season was the legendary Pat Riley, who is now the team’s GM. This means Wade has Tom Hagan in the director’s box, allowing him to go on being Michael Corleone. To break it down further, Wade knows Riley can deliver him a championship and he has said that he wants to stay in Miami. His focus, then, is on recruiting other Max Players to South Beach to play with him and create a dynasty. Having said that, he will no doubt still test the waters of free agency and see what sort of offers are on the table for him from around the league. See, you could argue, if you were brazen enough, that Wade is the league’s best player. When he had a good supporting cast, he won the title as the best player in the league. Since then he’s been injured or stuck with a woeful roster. So while everyone wants LeBron, if Pat Riley can supply Wade with a superstar buddy or two, it may not matter where LeBron goes because the Heat will be automatic contenders.

 

Apparently you can’t talk about free-agency without mentioning Chris Bosh, who is one of the most talented big men in the league. He is another player certain to get a max deal, and deservedly so. However, as much as he and speculators say that he may not want to share the mantle of franchise player, it’s pretty clear that if he’s the best player on a team, they aren’t winning anything. So it’s an even bet that he’ll team up with another Max Player. And his chances of staying in Toronto must be slim, considering they are in Canada and they are a one-and-done club (exit first round of playoffs) at best. They also want him to be the first banana, and he knows this hasn’t brought success nor, as I just mentioned, is it likely to.

 

As for the rest of the crew, even though Nowitzki is opting out, he is a sure bet to stay in Dallas, while Boozer, Stoudemire, Gay and Johnson are most likely to bolt from their clubs. There is even talk amongst some league insiders that the top 5 free agents could land on 2 teams. But again, it’s best to keep a clear head and not let rumour and innuendo steer you in the direction of assumptions.

 

So where are they likely to land? Firstly, even though LeBron will talk to all suitors, he only has a couple of options. He might end up re-signing with Cleveland either long-term – in the hope that his loyalty will spur them into getting their act together – or for three seasons, which gives them an ultimatum while buying LeBron more than enough time to get another giant payday or two. If he signs for the max with them he earns $125 million over 6 seasons, which is a whole lot more than the $96 million over 5 he can get anywhere else. Other than staying put, he may opt for Chicago who have a great young core to surround him (Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng) as well as the cash to lure another Max Player. The Bulls are also seriously chasing Dwayne Wade since he’s a Chicago native.

 

Then there’s New York, whose roster is paper thin, but they have the best coach on the board in Mike D’Antoni, who is a member of the Team USA coaching staff, as well as the architect of one of the best offensive teams in NBA history, the Run and Gun Phoenix Suns. They also have room to add another Max. One of the major aspects of the NYC sales pitch is just that: NYC. It’s the biggest basketball market on the planet and they haven’t won a title since 1970. The adulation showered on the player that returns the Knicks to the winner’s circle will be unprecedented and that player will essentially become the King of New York. It’s this sort of carrot that the Knicks brass will be dangling in front of these Max Guys. But the problem is, if they want to win – and win now – they will struggle because there are other teams that can sign to Max Players with much stronger rosters than the Knicks.

 

Miami shapes as probably the most fascinating destination, because it would team up the two most exciting players of their generation, Wade and James (assuming Wade stays true to his word, and he remains in Miami) with room for a further big like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. The mind boggles at this prospect. Think Boston in ‘07/’08, only the players coming into their primes, not near the end of them.

 

The New Jersey Nets have a new Russian owner who wants to make a splash, and coming off one of the worst seasons in history, it shouldn’t be hard. They are relocating to Brooklyn in two years, have more money than Abramovich and Jay-Z is a part owner. For the trainspotters out there, Brooklyn is LeBron’s favourite borough and Jigga is his best mate. That said, it’s likely the top free agents won’t end up there. Even though they have a couple of nice pieces (Brook Lopez and Devin Harris), they’re a bit of an afterthought. Watch out for them next year when Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul hit free agency.

The LA Clippers are in the market and have one of the better rosters of the chasing teams, but this assessment is based on potential rather than any evidence seen last year. LA has a lot going for it in terms of a destination, but any free agent would be living in the shadow of Kobe and the Lakers, while the Clippers are a cursed franchise with a bizarre owner, Donald Sterling, who is often embroiled in financial irregularities and has no real interest in seeing the team do well.

 

A couple of teams who have quietly come out of leftfield somewhat are intriguing prospects in the race. The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets both have strong rosters but don’t have the cap space to lure a Max Player outright. What they can do, however, is sign-and-trade. I’ll use Chris Bosh as an example, since he’s a Texan and both these teams are chasing his services. Toronto won’t want to lose Bosh for nothing, so they can sign him to a Max Contract and then trade him to Dallas or Houston. Those teams will send players to the value of between 90% and 110% of the value of Bosh’s new contract. So if he signs for $16.2 million a year, Dallas could send Toronto Erick Dampier at $13 million and DeShawn Stevenson at $4.2 million. This would work out for Toronto because even though they lose their best player, they get some assets in return, which is better than nothing. And in fact these assets could materialise next year when those two players’ contracts expire, so Toronto would then have $17.2 million in cap space to spend in 2012 free agency.

 

This is the way the game is played at this time of the season, and it’s never been more magnified than this year. The hoopla is borderline ridiculous and it’s actually a relief that the time has finally arrived so the speculating can finish and the players can make their decisions. Having said that, don’t expect any big names to fall for about a week, as the Max Players survey their options and listen out for the best sales pitch. In the mean time, the best you can do is sit tight and speculate like rest of us.