The All Blacks begin the Tri-Nations this weekend against defending champion South Africa at Auckland. And from the looks of their gallop through the June internationals against Ireland and Wales, they’re in a pretty good place right now. Three comprehensive victories – albeit against teams shorn of key personnel – owed much to the strength in depth of the squad, strangely at a time when commentators are bemoaning the lack of quality back up.
It was nice to see the coaches not making wholesale changes from week to week just to give the squad a run. It’s possible we’ve been let down in the past by giving teams with a few too many inexperienced players the chance to prove themselves against international sides all for the sake of development; think Italy (twice) last year. Clearly, having Carter and McCaw on board at the start of the program, as well as an extra week or two of preparation (thanks to the Super 14 teams’ failures) gave the squad plenty of time to learn each others’ names, or train, or whatever it is they do. These are good things and they bode well for the season ahead.
Yes, Mils
But teams from the northern hemisphere can only reasonably be called a warm-up these days, with few exceptions. And in a season where New Zealand has a bit of ground to make up on the Springboks, it was important that they were brushed aside with the conviction that we saw last month. Clearly it wasn’t a perfect start: the second half against Ireland and the second half of the second test against Wales were largely disappointing. But losing your concentration when the cause is already won isn’t worth losing too much sleep over.
So what about our chances? It’s fair to assume the African’s will shade us at the set-piece, unless something drastic happens to the scrum; if we play well, we should gain parity, but let’s not get carried away. So the All Blacks will need to use their heads a bit more than last year’s efforts, especially in the Republic. Like the 2009 version, this team is built for speed first and bulk second. Last year, they tried to run the Africans off the park but they didn’t have the skills for that strategy to succeed. This year the strategy looks similar, but there is much more surety about the team, while the players look more confident. If the off-side line is policed properly, the backs should have a bit more freedom and if they can catch the high ball, anything is possible now that counter-attacking is back in vogue.
Of concern for South Africa is the absence of Fourie du Preez. Without him, South Africa may not be as accurate or decisive around the park, and their All-Universe kicking game will merely be rendered World Class. Yet they still retain the core of their hugely experienced World Cup-winning squad and apparently have no fear of playing in New Zealand, as wins in Dunedin (2008) and Hamilton (2009) can attest. So considering how powerful they were last year, it’s fair to expect a very strong side again this season.
A thing of the past?
Of most interest will be the difference in playing styles from last year. South Africa’s ability to exert extreme pressure via their polished kicking game, watertight set-piece and resolute defence forced the All Blacks to play from uncomfortable positions, and after much creaking, they eventually broke under the weight. This year, however, New Zealand have added a few shots to their arsenal and are armed with better technique, to use a cricket analogy. They should be able to take the weight of the South African pressure and be a bit more professional in how they go about winning matches.
The question is, will the Boks change up? There have been whispers that they will threaten to use the ball more, but this may take them outside their effective comfort zone. And to be fair, this is said about as frequently as ‘soccer is taking off in the USA’ and neither of these has ever rang true. Expect what you always do with these two sides: well matched nemeses with brilliance – most likely individual – prevailing in the end.
