The mantra is being thrown around with monotonous regularity this week: ‘one game doesn’t make a season’. Those that get paid to say it and those that get paid to write it are clearly warning themselves and their fans of an onslaught from the Springboks in Wellington this Saturday. By all accounts, the Boks were not good in Auckland. They wasted possession by kicking high against a back three that was always going to be much improved after the scrutiny they were under last year. They also missed a lot of tackles, lost their line-outs (and didn’t steal any), were shaded in the scrums and never looked like breaching the opposition defence. Indeed, this looked like the Tri-Nations of old.
Epic
But caution is required this week; no need to break whatever spell the South Africans are under. Yet, however much people are bracing themselves for the recoil this Saturday, it’s possible they might be missing the bigger picture. This caution might be better employed further down the track.
The All Blacks of 2010 are obviously looking to play up-tempo. The ‘running of the bulls’ some are calling the insistence on keeping the ball in play to tire out the opposition forwards. This strategy was successful because the All Blacks have evolved and the Springboks have not. In the context of the professional game, this is not entirely surprising; New Zealand has always looked to shift the paradigm with its athletic forwards and ball-playing outsides. So in retrospect, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, just as it won’t be a surprise if the same thing happens this weekend.
What should be of greater concern is how this strategy shapes to succeed next year. When the World Cup comes knocking, all bets are off. ‘The way it should be played’ doesn’t get it done. This is a fact. Pragmatism returns and conservatism carries the day. What I’m hearing right now, with respect to forwards being asked to do more running and less set piece work, is similar to the aftermath of the 2003 World Cup. John Mitchell built a team that would supposedly run every team off the park in a hail of tries, but it was always on a collision course with a team whose game plan could shut down their running. In that case, Australia made short work of the 2003 model. Curiously, the core of that team who were beaten in the semi-final in Sydney has been the backbone of the Henry era. In fact McCaw, Mealamu, Thorn, Rokocoko and Muliaina were all present that night and all featured strongly in Auckland. Let’s give a quick shout out to Experience.
Brutal
It’s a stretch to say that 2011 is looking like a repeat of 2003. For one thing New Zealand’s coaching staff is a much more astute bunch, with respect to Mitchell and Deans; only by poring over hundreds of hours of tape and a rigorous addiction to the stats has the team decided that these tactics are the way forward this year. And as the evidence showed on Saturday, the scrum has reverted to the classic Henry-era brute that’s pushed world rugby around since 2004. Even the line-out was a cut above.
What should resonate from this team is its awareness of those that have failed before and why they did so. 2003 were all speed and no weights, 2007 combined both but lacked the brains. While it’s still more than a year way, the World Cup will likely revert to the ever-present safety-first style, particularly once knockout begins. And while another 10 tests similar to Auckland will certainly make this season, it’s worth remembering that regardless of prevailing playing style, 2011 will be a different animal altogether.
